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Thursday, December 08, 2005

UC predictions

The final vote count was around 3,900. My guess is big Haddock/Riley victory, probably something like 1,900 to V/G's 1,100 to G/H's 900. What's your guess?

Similar predicting is going on over at Team Zebra, check out Ryan Petersen's insanely complicated and impressive vote analysis in the comments section.


At 4:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

sure but what happens to magnus's vote redistribution?

and who comes in second? is it voith?

At 4:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's my TZ analysis for your convenience. It's intentionally hyperbolic, and I am a campaign staffer, but I think it will be within a 200 vote spread.

2,657 – before rescindemnt
1,232 – after rescindment
3,889 – total

H/R: 650 + 1,150 = 1,800
V/G: 232 + 900 = 1,132
M/T: 350 + 607 = 957

Second round:

H/R: 2,400
V/G: 1,489

At 11:56 am, there were 3889 votes counted.

Last year, there were 3,985 votes cast - a record high by 719 votes.

Over a 1,000 votes have been cast since the morning that the Crimson endorsement was rescinded. In fact, exactly 3,889 - 2,657 = 1,232 votes were cast between 5:51 am that morning and 11:56 am today.

Considering that the original Crimson endorsement was published the same day as the article concerning the V/G staffer's bribery attempt, it's hard to guess what effect the endorsement had on the election.

The endorsement rescindment was posted at 12:12 am on Wednesday morning. The BGLTSA/HRC joint statement wasa released on Monday at 6:55 pm on Dems-talk and is subsequently posted to everylist.

My guess is that the joint statement had less of an effect than the endorsement rescindment, because the rescindment encompassed the statement and lent it much more gravity (though the statement basically caused the rescindment - so it's net effect might be greater, it's immediate effect on subsequent voting was probably less)

It seems pretty safe to assume that most of the last 1,200 votes went to either Haddock/Riley or Magnus &Tom. (I haven't witnessed any great V/G push for either swing voters or mobilizing their base since the rescindment). In addition, I would also assume that the negative media on V/G will cause most M/T voters to put H/R as their second vote.

So, my predictions are as follows:

I thought that G/H would get about 1/5 of the pre-rescindment votes, but about 1/3 of the post-rescindment votes. Admirable show, Magnus and Tom, but you just barely lost to V/G, and no ticket received a majority.

Pre-Rescindment, first place votes:

Haddock/Riley: 1,150
Voith/Gadgil: 900
Grimeland/Hadfield: 607

Post-Rescindment & Total, first place votes:

HR: 750 (+ 1,150) = 1,900
VG: 132 (+ 900) = 1,032
GH: 350 (+ 607) = 957

After Redistributing Magnus and Tom's votes:

I figured that almost all of the post-rescindment votes were second rounded to Haddock/Riley, and that V/G had about a 50 vote lead on the second place of GH.

Pre-Rescindment + Post-Rescindment + First Round Firsts
HR: 275 + 250 + 1,900 = 2,425
VG: 332 + 100 + 1,032 = 1,464

Basically, a blow out victory for Haddock/Riley by about 1,000 votes. Glazer beat Moore by about 450, I thought doubling that for this election would be appropriate.

I give myself a 100 vote margin of error for my predictions (so I could have a 200 vote difference). The real kicker would be if Voith/Gadgil run third to Magnus and Tom. I'll try to figure that out in a moment, and I'll post it.

Now, should Voith/Gadgil take third place, this becomes a much, much more interesting race. My guess is that in pre-rescindment, most of their second-place votes go to Haddock/Riley.

Now, should Voith/Gadgil take third place, this becomes a much, much more interesting race. My guess is that in pre-rescindment, most of their second-place votes go to Haddock/Riley.

I gave the pre-rescindment votes equally from HR and VG to GH, simply because I have trouble reasoning whether V/G or H/R had more swing voters that would go to G/H before the rescindment.

Pre-Rescindment, first place votes:

Haddock/Riley: 1,100
Voith/Gadgil: 850
Grimeland/Hadfield: 707

Post-Rescindment, on the other hand, there would be a stronger indication of anti-typical UC tickets, so I would give more votes to G/H, but not a majority. I didn’t decrease V/G votes, because it couldn’t be much lower than 132.

Post-Rescindment & Total, first place votes:

HR: 650 (+ 1,050) = 1,700
VG: 132 (+ 850) = 982
GH: 450 (+ 757) = 1,207

After Redistributing Voith & Gadgil’s votes:

I think that most of V/G second place votes would go to H/R (because they are the other UC-experienced, “credible” ticket), but about 1/3 would go to G/H as protest from some strong V/G supporters against H/R, and the feeling among some of the less-typical UC voters that they voted for V/G for personal reasons, and don’t want to toe the typical UC ticket line. (i.e. athletes & some Final Club members – this is the first year that the SAAC has endorsed, and typically the athletes don’t vote in high numbers, which is a shame because their interests are often underrepresented on the council. The unofficial relationship between Harvard and the Final Clubs creates a disconnect between the UC & the clubs, so the members don’t turn out in that high of force – maybe this is conjecture).

Essentially, the negativism of the race (especially post-rescindment) may have made some voters of V/G put their second place votes to G/H. Most would probably still put H/R because they don’t take G/H very seriously as a ticket, but there could be a fair amount of dissent against the UC. Closer race, but I still give the win to Haddock/Riley by about 850 votes.

Pre-Rescindment + Post-Rescindment + First Round Firsts
HR: 650 + 25 + 1,700 = 2,375
GH: 200 + 107 + 1,207 = 1,514


At 6:43 PM, Blogger Neeraj "Richie" Banerji said...

Ryan, you have more time on your hands than all of Team Zebra. And that is fuckin' impressssssssssive.

At 9:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...



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